“On Monday, he (President Obama) announced an executive order that allows U.S. officials for the first time to impose sanctions on foreign nationals found to have used new technologies, including cellphone tracking and Internet monitoring, to [...]]]> The Obama administration has announced new sanctions on those who provide Syria and Iran with technologies of repression:

“On Monday, he (President Obama) announced an executive order that allows U.S. officials for the first time to impose sanctions on foreign nationals found to have used new technologies, including cellphone tracking and Internet monitoring, to help carry out grave human rights abuses.

“The order specifically targets companies and individuals aiding the Iranian and Syrian governments, but administration officials say it could be expanded to include other countries using technology to crack down on dissent.

“Under the order, the administration announced new sanctions, including a U.S. visa ban and financial restrictions, against Syrian and Iranian agencies and individuals. Those include the Syrian General Intelligence Directorate, the Syriatel phone company and Ali Mamluk, the director of Syria’s general intelligence services.

“In Iran, the sanctions target the elite Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Ministry of Intelligence and Security, the law enforcement forces and Datak Telecom.”

The logical next Middle Eastern country to be targeted by such sanctions is Bahrain, and in fact its absence from this initial wave is already conspicuous. However, I’m not holding my breath, and will be pleasantly surprised if it happens.

(Crossposted to my blog)

Related posts:

1. Syria-Iraq Dispute Could Be Ending
2. End of a Century…It’s Nothing Special
3. The Commander-in-Chief in His Labyrinth

“Far better to attack Mr Assad’s regime where it is vulnerable—by peeling away his support, both at home among Syria’s minorities and abroad, especially in Russia, its chief defender on the UN Security Council. Both Syria’s Alawites and Vladimir Putin cling [...]]]> The Economist‘s proposal for Syria shows just how powerless the international community is:

“Far better to attack Mr Assad’s regime where it is vulnerable—by peeling away his support, both at home among Syria’s minorities and abroad, especially in Russia, its chief defender on the UN Security Council. Both Syria’s Alawites and Vladimir Putin cling to this dictator because they think that, despite his faults, he is better than the alternative. Yet under Mr Assad Syria has no future. Before the Arab spring his attempts to modernise the economy enriched a coterie of his cronies but did little for ordinary Syrians. Were he to see off today’s uprising, he would be left ruling over an isolated, impoverished and angry country. Surely the opposition can offer enough Syrians of all creeds a better future than that?

“To make that promise credible, Syria’s fractious opposition must unite. A contact group of outside powers and the opposition could channel money into Syria, as well as help with communications and logistics. With a single voice and a credible leader, the opposition could seek to reassure the merchants, Kurds and Christians who back Mr Assad that they will be safer and more prosperous without him. The Russians would also begin to shift ground. Mr Putin enjoys standing up to the interfering West, not least for domestic political reasons (see article), but sticking with a doomed leader could cost Russia its naval-supply base in Tartus and its arms exports. The more senior officials and army officers defect from the regime, the more likely Mr Putin is to change sides too.

“To help persuade them, Turkey, with the blessing of NATO and the Arab League, should create and defend a safe haven in north-western Syria. The FSA can train fighters there, and a credible opposition can take shape. Turkey seems willing to do this, providing it gets Western support. The haven would be similar to that created for the Kurds in northern Iraq; Mr Assad would suffer only if he attacked it.”

This has not just one, but two major weak points. Working from the proposed action, it assumes first that the creation of a safe haven can somehow unite the opposition, and second that this opposition could persuade Assad’s supporters within Syria to switch sides. Unfortunately, I don’t see much in the way of mechanics for how either actually works.

(Crossposted to Brian’s Coffeehouse)

Related posts:

1. Syrian Opposition
2. Politics of Turkish-Israeli Relations
3. Recognizing Free Libya

“The Assad regime insists that the opposition protests that have rocked the country since March are being driven by ‘armed terrorist groups’ and ‘Islamic militants.’ It has blamed Al Qaeda for three suicide bomb attacks over the past month against security [...]]]> Nicholas Blanford examines the question of whether al-Qaeda is involved in Syria’s uprising:

“The Assad regime insists that the opposition protests that have rocked the country since March are being driven by ‘armed terrorist groups’ and ‘Islamic militants.’ It has blamed Al Qaeda for three suicide bomb attacks over the past month against security offices in Damascus, which left 70 people dead.

“Analysts say there is little proof – at least for now – that suggests that Al Qaeda, or its militant affiliates, are seeking to play an active role in the Syrian uprising…

“(However,) as the violence has steadily worsened, some commentators on jihadist websites are openly calling for waging a jihad against the Assad regime. In November, Osama al-Shehabi, the leader of Al Qaeda-inspired Fatah al-Islam in Lebanon, called for an armed struggle in Syria.

“‘The regime’s brutal oppression of the Syrian people proves that it is time to change direction and use real weapons against the regime,’ he wrote in an article that was published by the Shumoukh al-Islam online forum. ‘The revolution is a jihad; it is a war; prepare for jihad for God; scrutinize your intentions and take up arms, for they are your obligation.’

“Last month the jihadist website Minbar al-Tawhid Wa al-Jihad posted a fatwa, or religious edict, by an influential Salafist cleric, in which he sanctioned the use of violence against the Assad regime.

“‘Why do you insist on confining yourselves to peaceful protests?’ wrote Sheikh Abu Mundhir al-Shinqiti. ‘Is it a disgrace to kill those who kill us?… It has come to a stage where nothing will avail except taking up arms.’”

The answer to the question probably depends on the meaning of “al-Qaeda.” The intelligence coup from the Bin Laden raid revealed that al-Qaeda central did have a larger coordinating role over al-Qaeda branded groups than most scholars had previously suspected. However, all these local groups still had their own levels of affiliation, as well as favored local causes. The Libyan Islamic Fighters Group was always primarily interested in their struggle against Qadhafi, and now that he’s gone, there’s been no evidence of their attacking other topics. It sounds like Lebanon’s Fatah al-Islam has an interest in the Syrian cause, as well. Even then, however, if Syria did rank high on the agenda of the al-Qaeda movement as a whole, I’d expect to see more happening in Aleppo, which as I recall had an underground jihadist community which supported foreign fighters en route to Iraq.

(Crossposted to my blog)

Related posts:

1. Syrian Opposition
2. Hamas’s Economic Rise
3. Engaging the Muslim World: Muslim Activism, Muslim Radicalism

“A harrowing sectarian war has spread across the Syrian city of Homs this month, with supporters and opponents of the government blamed for beheadings, rival gangs carrying out tit-for-tat kidnappings, minorities fleeing for their native villages, [...]]]> Anthony Shadid fears that what’s happening in Homs could be a harbinger of things to come in Syria:

“A harrowing sectarian war has spread across the Syrian city of Homs this month, with supporters and opponents of the government blamed for beheadings, rival gangs carrying out tit-for-tat kidnappings, minorities fleeing for their native villages, and taxi drivers too fearful of drive-by shootings to ply the streets…

“Homs, Syria’s third-largest city, has a sectarian mix that mirrors the nation. The majority is Sunni Muslim, with sizable minorities of Christians and Alawites, a heterodox Muslim sect from which Mr. Assad draws much of his top leadership. Though some Alawites support the uprising, and some Sunnis still back the government, both communities have overwhelmingly gathered on opposite sides in the revolt…

“Fear has become so pronounced that, residents say, Alawites wear Christian crosses to avoid being abducted or killed when passing through the most restive Sunni neighborhoods, where garbage has piled up in a sign of the city’s dysfunction…

“Even as the death toll has dropped in Homs in recent days, the sectarian strife seems to have gathered a relentless momentum that has defied the attempts of both Sunni and Alawite residents to stanch it. One prominent Sunni activist, who spoke only on the condition of anonymity, used the term shabeeha — an Arabic word that refers to government paramilitaries — to describe the situation evolving inside Homs.

“‘There are shabeeha on both sides now,’ he said.”

There is a relentless logic to these kinds of identity-based conflicts by which a small number of militants can pry apart larger communities that would otherwise get along. Where public order is weak, armed fanatics will target you just for who you are. How do you respond? By finding the armed fanatics who will protect you just for who you are. We saw this dynamic play out in Iraq, especially between 2006 and 2008, when mixed Sunni/Shi’ite neighborhoods were cleansed of one group or the other. As a result of the turmoil of post-Saddam Iraq, hundreds of thousands of mainly Sunni Iraqis remain as refugees in Syria and Jordan, an everyday reminder in those countries of what many Arabs see, not entirely fairly, but also not unfairly, as an ethnic tyranny that now controls Mesopotamia.

Much as Saddam Hussein’s regime was not overtly sectarian but disproportionately favored Sunnis based on personal connections, so Ba’athist Syria supports and is supported by the Alawite communities and other religious minorities. When Sunni/Shi’ite prejudices are already high because of the Iraq situation, the more recent developments in Bahrain, and Arab fears of Iranian influence, the ground is ripe for a repeat of sectarian civil war following the collapse of a Ba’athist regime. Based on the reporting out of Syria, I fear the worst.

(Crossposted to my blog)

Related posts:

1. Nir Rosen’s New Take On Iraq – “An Ugly Peace”
2. I’m Surprised She Didn’t Get a Promotion
3. Repression in Bahrain

“As Syria’s crackdown on protests has claimed more than 3,000 lives since March, Italian technicians in telecom offices from Damascus to Aleppo have been busy equipping President Bashar al-Assad’s regime with the power to intercept, scan and catalog virtually every e-mail that [...]]]> Blake Hounshell flags the story of the company installing Syria’s dissent-quenching network:

“As Syria’s crackdown on protests has claimed more than 3,000 lives since March, Italian technicians in telecom offices from Damascus to Aleppo have been busy equipping President Bashar al-Assad’s regime with the power to intercept, scan and catalog virtually every e-mail that flows through the country.

“Employees of Area SpA, a surveillance company based outside Milan, are installing the system under the direction of Syrian intelligence agents, who’ve pushed the Italians to finish, saying they urgently need to track people, a person familiar with the project says. The Area employees have flown into Damascus in shifts this year as the violence has escalated, says the person, who has worked on the system for Area…

“When the system is complete, Syrian security agents will be able to follow targets on flat-screen workstations that display communications and Web use in near-real time alongside graphics that map citizens’ networks of electronic contacts, according to the documents and two people familiar with the plans.”

This company’s contract for installing the system they call “Asfador” is $18 million.

(Crossposted to my blog)

Related posts:

1. Syria-Iraq Dispute Could Be Ending
2. Of Mercs and Spooks
3. The Fog of Warmongering

“Tragically, the propaganda is also taken seriously by members of Syria’s minority sects — not by all of them by any stretch, but perhaps by a majority. It’s tragic because perceived minority support for this sadistic regime will inevitably tarnish intersectarian relations in [...]]]> Robin Yassin-Kassab takes a look at religious minorities and Syria’s uprising:

“Tragically, the propaganda is also taken seriously by members of Syria’s minority sects — not by all of them by any stretch, but perhaps by a majority. It’s tragic because perceived minority support for this sadistic regime will inevitably tarnish intersectarian relations in Syria in the future.

“Those Sunni Syrians who are (understandably) enraged by the minorities’ siding with the dictatorship should remember first that many Alawis and Christians, as well as many more Druze and Ismailis, have joined the revolution and that many have paid the price. Second, Sunnis should remember that Alawis and Christians have good reason to fear change, if not to believe the propaganda…

“The one thing the regime has done intelligently in the last six months is to play on minorities’ fears. I know that prominent Alawis have been receiving threatening phone calls from unknown numbers, ostensibly from “Sunnis” but almost certainly from the mukhabarat. (How would street-level Sunnis get hold of the phone numbers, and why would they want to make such threats when the committees coordinating the protests are stressing the importance of avoiding sectarianism?)..

“The minorities — and not only the minorities — also fear the fate of Iraq and Lebanon. When Saddam Hussein fell in Iraq, the Sunni community as a whole was blamed for the crimes of the whiskey-quaffing dictator. The Sunnis then gave shelter to Wahhabi nihilists who bombed Shiite civilians and drove a large chunk of the Christian community into Syria. So will all Alawis be blamed for the Assads? Will they be returned to their pre-1920s status? Will Christians lose Syria, the one place in the Arab world where they have prospered and practiced their faith unmolested?

“The two scenarios that most terrify the minorities (and almost everyone else) are, first, the rise of intolerant Islamism, and, second, sectarian civil war. Unfortunately, both scenarios become more likely with every moment the regime remains in power. The experience of being shot at, besieged, and tortured will inevitably drive some toward more extreme views. In addition, the military units slaughtering the people are overwhelmingly Alawi and commanded by Alawis. The regime’s shabiha militias in Hama, Homs, and Latakia are Alawis recruited from the surrounding villages. These are the people torturing Sunni women and children to death, burning shops and cars, beating and humiliating old men. Their actions will have consequences. If the regime falls soon, the consequences will be legal and targeted solely at the guilty. If the regime doesn’t fall soon, the consequences may be violent, generalized vigilante ‘justice.’ Then Iraq and Lebanon will become Syria’s models.”

A point to take out of this is that religious and ethnic enmities are not natural. They emerge over time based on differential interests and political mobilization and manipulation. In times of turbulence, it’s important to recognize this to try and prevent them from hardening, as difficult as that is.

(Crossposted to my blog)

Related posts:

1. Nir Rosen’s New Take On Iraq – “An Ugly Peace”
2. Bulletproof…I Wish I Was
3. Iraq’s Nakba

“Abu Omar was a senior coordinator in the country’s six-month-old uprising and was involved in opposition activities since 2007. He lamented that to date, the revolution had only succeeded in costing the [...]]]> Nir Rosen spends several weeks in Syria and finds a growing belief in the need to take up arms among the opposition:

“Abu Omar was a senior coordinator in the country’s six-month-old uprising and was involved in opposition activities since 2007. He lamented that to date, the revolution had only succeeded in costing the lives of three thousand people.

“‘After Libya, many people said it was a mistake to have a peaceful revolution and if they had done it like the Libyans they would be free by now,’ he said.

“As I spent more time in Syria, I could see a clear theme developing in the discourse of the opposition: A call for an organised armed response to the government crackdown, mainly from the opposition within Syria. Demonstrators had hoped the holy month of Ramadan would be the turning point in their revolution, but as it came to an end – six months into the Syrian uprising – many realised the regime was too powerful to be overthrown peacefully.

“Previously, on August 25, I met with a senior opposition leader in Damascus’ large suburb of Harasta, an anti-regime stronghold. The government had cracked down harshly on demonstrations there, though the armed opposition had been able to kill many members of the security forces.

“‘In the end we cannot be free without weapons,’ the leader said. ‘It’s necessary, but not by the people, by the army; we need defections.’

“A few days later, on August 28, I attended an anti-regime demonstration in the Bab Assiba neighbourhood of Homs. Demonstrators there were calling for a no-fly zone, much like the one imposed over Libya. Many of them hoped for international intervention.”

Rosen goes on to argue that opposition cannot simplistically adopt the Libya model to change their regime. Part of the problem is a simple lack of weapons and training, which leaves them hoping for more significant military defections. He also doesn’t see how Syria’s geography would allow for the creation of a resistance enclave which could be protected from the air. The second point seems debatable, but I definitely don’t see Assad’s rule collapsing unless the resistance is able to win more support, including broad support in at least some regions. I’ll be looking in further dispatches to see whether Rosen sees that as possible.

(Crossposted to my blog)

Related posts:

1. Syria-Iraq Dispute Could Be Ending
2. The Case of Libya
3. Hama under Siege

“Syrian security forces have killed at least six people and wounded dozens in raids across the country, as tanks and armoured vehicles rolled into various flashpoint areas, according to human rights groups…

“There have been consistent [...]]]> As the Syrian regime continues its violent crackdown on demonstrators, there are reports of dissension in the ranks:

“Syrian security forces have killed at least six people and wounded dozens in raids across the country, as tanks and armoured vehicles rolled into various flashpoint areas, according to human rights groups…

“There have been consistent reports of some units refusing to fire on protesters, but the crackdown has continued…

“Opposition activists say security forces have also surrounded the central town of Rastan after reports of ‘widespread defections’ by soldiers there.

“A video posted on video-sharing website YouTube, which Al Jazeera cannot independently verify, appears to show 12 army officers switching sides…

“Activists and residents have been reporting increasing defections in the Syrian army since the demise of Muammar Gaddafi’s rule over Libya, Reuters reported.

“They claim there have been desertions in the eastern Deir ez-Zor province, the northwestern Idlib province, the Homs countryside and at the outskirts of Damascus.

“A statement published on the internet by the Free Officers, a group that says it represents defectors, also said ‘large defections’ had occurred in Harasta; the first reported defections around the capital, where President Bashar al-Assad’s core forces are based…

“This came as Syrian opposition leaders formed a National Transitional Council in Turkey. It included 42 members who are currently in Syria, and will be led by a prominent opposition figure based in Paris.”

When I noted the possible effects of Qadhafi’s fall on other Arab countries, I thought of the protestors, but had not considered that it could inspire defections in the armed forces. Incidentally, is “National Transitional Council” going to be the Revolutionary Command Council of the 21st century?

(Crossposted to my blog)

Related posts:

1. At Close Range
2. Egyptian Uncertainties
3. A Worried Regime

“The death toll from the siege of Hama had by Wednesday night reached 28, with dozens more wounded, according to residents and activists. One resident told the Guardian he had counted 93 tanks on the [...]]]> American media find it less important than Casey Anthony, but Hama has become a critical flashpoint in Syria’s uprising:

“The death toll from the siege of Hama had by Wednesday night reached 28, with dozens more wounded, according to residents and activists. One resident told the Guardian he had counted 93 tanks on the outskirts of the city – an indicator of what may lie ahead if Hama’s 800,000 people continue to defy the regime’s leaders in Damascus.

“After four months of almost daily uprisings across Syria, Hama has become a focal point of a nationwide revolution. Residents claim they are standing up to the might of President Bashar al-Assad’s military with rocks, slingshots and some light weapons.

“They suggest that the regime no longer knows what to do with Hama, which it has at times during the past two months saturated with troops and at other times abandoned.

“The central city was the scene of the biggest demonstration yet seen in Syria last Friday – a huge gathering of at least 200,000 people that electrified the protest movement across the country and sparked the latest military action.”

To make sure the timeline is clear, at one point the Syrian military withdrew from Hama, which became the scene of even larger protests, including the on Friday that probably triggered the current attacks after the firing the the governor on Saturday. Anthony Shadid reports on the city under rebel control:

“But a government decision last month to withdraw its forces has ceded the streets to protesters, who have tried to create an alternative model to the heavy-handed repression that serves as a trademark of Baathist rule. Residents interviewed by telephone said they had begun working collectively in acts as small as cleaning a downtown square and as large as organizing the defense of some neighborhoods.

“More critically, the scenes of enormous, peaceful rallies there Friday, with their echoes of dissent in Egypt and Tunisia earlier this year, have served as a persuasive critique of the government’s version of events, which had won over large segments of Syrian society. Throughout the nearly four-month uprising, the government has pointed to the deaths of hundreds of its forces, in particular in the still murky events in Jisr al-Shoughour in the north, to argue that the unrest is the product of violent Islamist radicals with support from abroad.”

The city of Hama was essentially destroyed in 1982, and over 20,000 were massacred as the regime of Hafez al-Assad, Bashar’s father, cracked down on Syria’s Muslim Brotherhood. The Guardian, in the article linked first above, suggests memories of that contribute to anti-regime sentiment in the city today. On the note about political Islam, protestors in Hama are chanting “God is Great,” but that is generally meant as an indictment of rulers who demand the sort of obedience due only to God, as seen in its use in the 2009 Iranian election protests.

(Crossposted to my blog)

Related posts:

1. Syria-Iraq Dispute Could Be Ending
2. Iran’s Chaos
3. At Close Range

"Syria’s opposition movement is in shambles. Obama’s victory changed the calculations of the opposition in exile. US government supplied MEPI money, which sustained some, has dried up. But mostly, Syrians, who had hoped that President Bush would “reform the greater Middle East” as promised, understood [...]]]> Joshua Landis takes a look at Syria’s opposition movement:

"Syria’s opposition movement is in shambles. Obama’s victory changed the calculations of the opposition in exile. US government supplied MEPI money, which sustained some, has dried up. But mostly, Syrians, who had hoped that President Bush would “reform the greater Middle East” as promised, understood it was not to be. President Assad is
firmly in control at home; the Iraq fiasco has re-legitimized authoritarianism in the Middle East, at least tmeporarily; and Obama
has little choice but to engage with America’s erstwhile enemies in the
region, as he is now doing.

"The National Salvation Front, of which Sba’i was a leading member and articulate and passionate spokesperson, has crumbled. The Muslim Brotherhood announced it was pulling out of its alliance with ex-Vice President Khaddam in April and was seeking a new relationship with the Assad regime. The immediate pretext for this move was the Gaza war, but the M.B’s rational for linking up with old Baathists, such as Khaddam, disapeared with the departure of President Bush."

Related posts:

1. Engaging the Muslim World: Iraq and Islam Anxiety
2. Engaging the Muslim World: Overview
3. Heavy Metal Islam