Stephen Walt makes at least a few good points on the costs of the Afghanistan escalation/occupation. First, it will end up costing more than advertised in real dollars when all is said and done. Wars always do. Second, there are serious opportunity costs that rarely enter the equation. Health care reform and other domestic initiatives are jeopardized by Obama’s gambit. Walt offers a few on the foreign policy front:
1. The new Japanese government is actively rethinking its security partnership with the United States, and while I don’t think we should rush to accommodate all of their concerns, we certainly ought to be paying very close attention. But having just returned from a quick Asian trip, Obama is likely to put relations with Japan (and other key Asian allies) on the back burner. That would be a mistake, because a significant erosion in the U.S. position there would have far more significant effects than the outcome of the Afghan campaign. Mapping out a long-term security strategy for Asia will take time and attention, and that’s precisely what Obama doesn’t have right now.
2. The democratic government of Turkey has been carving out a more independent and influential position at the crossroad of Europe and Asia. Its recent decision to reject Israeli participation in a scheduled NATO military exercise (which led to the exercise being canceled) is one sign of this new independence, as is its more active engagement with Syria and Iran. This development is not necessarily a bad thing, if Turkey uses its growing influence constructively. But it is a new feature of the global scene that calls for sustained attention and a nuanced U.S. response, and I’ll bet it doesn’t get either.
3. Brazil is becoming a more independent and less deferential power here in the Western hemisphere. President Lula de Silva has opened more than 30 embassies around the world since 2003, remains on good terms with Venezualan strongman Hugo Chavez, has defended Iran’s nuclear research program, and recently hosted Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Brasilia. Obama and Lula have exchanged letters on some of these issues, and Brasilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim has said there is “no crisis” between the two countries. But he has also said that the two countries “are in different latitudes” and “must get used to disagreeing.” A stronger and more assertive Brazil will also create new diplomatic opportunities for other Latin American countries (who have long resented U.S. dominance in the Western hemisphere), as well as opportunities for other great powers. And might this herald a gradual erosion of the Monroe Doctrine?
I’d add the stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace process to that list. Obama’s inability to get real concessions from Netanyahu on a settlement freeze is costing Obama big time in terms of Arab public opinion - but then, so is his underlying decision to escalate in Afghanistan.
This opportunity cost argument is one that I made frequently with respect to the Iraq war during the Bush years. Alas, even under Obama, wars still suck up massive amounts of brain power, resources and energy all in pursuit of vague objectives with low probabilities for success, however defined. The United States could be getting more bang for the buck in terms of advancing its interests, bettering the lives of its citizens and bettering the lives of foreigners through policies other than more and longer wars. And yet…
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