Aluf Benn must be living in an alternate universe:
“Operation Cast Lead in Gaza was perceived in Israel as a shining victory. Rocket fire from Gaza was brought to a halt almost completely. The Israel Defense Forces emerged from its failure during the Second Lebanon War and deployed ground forces with few casualties. ‘The world’ let the operation continue and did not impose a cease-fire. A wonderful war.
“Ten months later, it seems the victory was a Pyrrhic one. Israel did not realize that the rules have changed with Barack Obama’s election as U.S. president. Prime minister Ehud Olmert timed Cast Lead to take place during the twilight period between the outgoing and incoming U.S. administrations, and rightly assumed that the incumbent, George W. Bush, would fully back Israel. However, in contrast to the Lebanon war of 2006, which ended with a cease-fire, the Gaza campaign continues being fought – in the diplomatic arena and in public opinion – and Israel must cope with its consequences in a less-friendly Obama era.”
The context for this is the Goldstone Report, which Benn argues Obama is using, in some nebulous fashion, to punish Israel. Meanwhile, in the reality I inhabit, the U.S. worked to block the report, and, about the same time, withdrew from the Anatolian Eagle military exercises after Turkey excluded Israel. Rhetoric might have changed slightly, but the Obama administration has shown no teeth of any kind toward the Netanyahu government and Israel’s settlement policy, which is the real problem.
(Crossposted to my blog)
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Abbas changing his mind is an issue as well. He negotiated without a settlement freeze when Olmert was in office, but he’s been demanding one ever since Netanyahu came in. Doubts about Netanyahu’s seriousness in any negotiations are obviously well-founded, but it doesn’t look like anything’s going to change as long as the complete freeze demand is still in place. Bibi is not going to pay a price with Israeli public opinion for standing his ground on that issue.
Of course, having demanded it for months now, Abbas is not exactly well-placed to back down on it. Obama is not showing a lot of leverage with either side at the moment.