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Sigh Ops

Eric Martin  Apr 24 2008 - 3:38pm   

Cheryl Rofer is growing frustrated with the kabuki theater surrounding Israel's nuclear arsenal - a topic germane to at least three news stories currently in circulation.  Rofer is always worth the read in connection with anything nuclear-related.  And not.

Ilan Goldenberg takes note of some more "Special Groups" semantic chicanery.  This site has been taking note of such word play in recent days.  Cernig follows up with a post on the significance of 73% - and the recurrence of that very percentage.  We need better propagandists.

I wish I had more time to blog, but you see, 73% of my day is currently being absorbed battling Special Projects from my bosses - at least, those of my bosses working direclty with the regime in Tehran in an elaborate effort to distract me from the unfolding plot to nuke defenseless Israel. 

Vote McCain!

Israeli nukes
Haggai  Apr 25 2008 - 12:00am   

From the blog post you linked to, this statement (in the context of the Israeli attack on a possible Syrian reactor site last year) strikes me as unsupported by the facts: 

Israel, of course, can attack its neighbors with impunity because of
its nuclear arsenal, the threat from which keeps them from complaining
much about it.

The threat of Israel's nukes allows it to "attack its neighbors with impunity"?  That would come as a surprise to Hizbollah, which didn't show many signs of being deterred by Israeli nukes during the fighting two summers ago.  It is true that Syria had no military response to the Israeli attack last year, but that's because the balance of power in the realm where any actual Syrian-Israeli confrontation would occurr--a conventional, state-to-state clash--Israel's overwhelming conventional superiority would result in a crushing defeat for Syria.

Admittedly, the kabuki about Israel's undeclared deterrent gets weirder and more ridiculous as time passes.  When Abba Eban was the British liaison officer to the Haganah during WWII to coordinate plans for resisting a potential German invasion of Palestine, the Haganah was still technically an "underground" organization, which was such a farcical description that Eban proclaimed it as "the least secret organization in the history of secrecy."  Israel's nukes could probably be described similarly. 

But it should also be pointed out that of all the potentially dire consequences of Israel's going nuclear that first came up under JFK, which were entirely reasonable to worry about--maybe the Arab states would rush to get nukes, or maybe the Soviets would simply station some of their arsenal on Arab soil--NONE of them came to pass.  Iran might be on the way to challenging that so-far stable status quo, but they've had plenty of other reasons for potentially going down that path, including Pakistan going nuclear.  In any event, attributing an ability to Israel to "attack its neighbors with impunity" due to having nuclear weapons is not borne out by the facts.       


But she is right
Armchair Generalist  Apr 25 2008 - 8:14am   

Come on, Haggai, you cannot point to non-state actors to rebut Cheryl's argument here. The fact is that Israel pretty well ignores any consequences that might arise from its actions against nation-states, which is why no one, including Syria, murmurred a note of distress when Israel bombed the alleged nuclear facility. Israel routinely strikes at targets in Lebanon, Gaza, and West Bank (yes I know those are "Israeli terroritories") without worrying at all about any ME state saying "hey waitta minute here."

Just as the US and USSR nuclear parity allowed for an increase in conventional fighting by proxies around the world, Israel's nuclear weapons - causing a conventional stalemate in the ME - has increased non-state actor fighting in and around its local. So when Israel feels randy, it has no worries about sending out a quick attack force to make its concerns known. And I'm sure we'll see a repeat of this behavior in South Lebanon soon.

Timendi causa est nescire - Ignorance is the cause of fear.


"Causing" a conventional stalemate?
Haggai  Apr 25 2008 - 10:11am   

Are you really sure about the cause-and-effect there?  The following factors, none of them nuclear, heavily contributed to the shift within the Arab-Israeli conflict over time from state vs. state to state vs. non-state actors:

1) Israel's overwhelming victory in 1967, which relegated its destruction by conventional Arab military action into the realm of permanent fantasy.

2) The increasing salience of the Palestinians as a separate issue from the Arab states vs. Israel conflict, which largely resulted from Israel occupying the West Bank and Gaza in '67.  Being more on their own than ever before, the Palestinians turned more to guerrilla and terrorist attacks instead of relying on the failed military power of the Arab states.

3) Sadat's decision to make peace, which removed the most powerful Arab state from the conflict and thus made a conventional attack by any of Israel's neighbors far less likely.

You could see the effects of 3), in particular, in Israel's invasion of Lebanon in '82.  Having safely concluded the peace treaty with Egypt, Menachem Begin felt he had a freer hand to launch a massive intervention into Lebanon, which would have been seen as a much riskier proposition when Egypt was either still poised to attack Israel, or engaged in negotiations towards peace.  And then the rise of Hezbollah shifted the overall Arab-Israeli conflict more into the state vs. non-state realm--that came from a combination of the instability of the Lebanese civil war, external support from the new Iranian regime, and the further destabilizing effects of the Israeli invasion.

But all of this has a lot more to do with Israel's huge superiority vis-a-vis its neighbors in the conventional realm than with its nukes.  I admit to knowing very little about nuclear weapons and their effect on international relations, but I know plenty about the Arab-Israeli conflict, and I think you guys are forgetting about a lot of things that have been far more significant than Israel's nuclear arsenal.


Saddam vs. Israel
Haggai  Apr 25 2008 - 10:32am   

Let me add the example of what Saddam did in '81 vs what he did in '91.  Again, my overall point here is just that Israel's nukes were not the determining factor in what happened, in this particular state vs. state scenario.

After Israel bombed Osiraq in '81, Saddam had no direct recourse against them, partly because he had his hands full with fighting Iran, and partly because any Israel vs. Iraq confrontation would have resulted in him getting his butt kicked.  But in '91, he was able to bomb Israel at will without worrying about any repercussions--why?  Because the way the political situation was lining up, it made perfect sense for him to do so: he knew that it would increase his support with Arab populations, and that any direct Israeli response would put the other Arab governments in such an untenable position (fighting against another Arab state on the same side as both the U.S. AND Israel) that they might have to withdraw their support of Desert Storm.  So he had very little to lose, and potentially quite a lot to gain, from attacking Israel.  Their nuclear weapons didn't enter into it, aside from possibly being a factor in deterring him from attaching chemical weapons to the Scuds.  


Not a good example
Armchair Generalist  Apr 25 2008 - 12:33pm   

Again I have to admire your selective use of examples. The reason why Saddam got away with hitting Israel with Scuds in 1991 was because he was welcoming Israeli retaliation. If Israel would have attacked Iraq in 91 in retaliation for the Scuds, the other Arab nations would have been very hard pressed to retain their relationships within the coalition. Saddam did not "bomb" Israel nor did he have any capability to actually threaten Israel's land borders. And if Saddam had used chemical-biological warheads on the Scuds, you would have seen some stink flying.

But you didn't, because Saddam (although dangerous, not crazy) only wanted to illicit a small response, not a big one. Bottom line, Israel's proved its capability to project power to anywhere in the Middle East and has made clear what happens to armies that think to intrude on Israel's land. As a result, it doesn't care about the consequences of conventional attacks, because no one fears Israel going for a land grab and no one wants to be nuked in a major combat situation if they go into Israel. Dragging out examples prior to 1990 is not relevant to today's situation.

Timendi causa est nescire - Ignorance is the cause of fear.


But aren't we kind of saying the same thing?
Haggai  Apr 25 2008 - 12:57pm   

Saddam was able to attack Israel in '91 because conventional retaliation would have been to his benefit, i.e. the nukes had little or nothing to do with it (though my word choice was bad, since firing Scuds from afar isn't the same as "bombing" someone).  And I did point out that the nuclear factor might have deterred Saddam from using any chem or bio weapons in those Scud attacks.

As you say, "no one fears Israel going for a land grab and no one wants to be nuked in a major combat situation if they go into Israel," but I don't think the nukes matter all that much here.  No neighboring Arab states have enough conventional power to cross Israel's borders in force, certainly not the pre-'67 boundaries.  So I don't see how Israel's nukes are supposed to be such a determining factor in changing how the conflict has been fought, i.e. more focused on irregular forces and non-state groups, or in affecting Israel's thinking on what it can or can't get away with.  Those are the arguments I disagree with. 


we are but we aren't
Armchair Generalist  Apr 29 2008 - 9:33am   

I would submit that Israel's neighbors have reduced their conventional warfare capability because of the nuclear imbalance - they recognize that they no longer have the ability or the backing of Russia to win in any form of conventional operation. So it becomes a circular argument - did Israel's nukes create the current lack of state-vs-state conventional attacks, or did the neighboring states willfully build up irregular capabilities as a conscious substitute for their lack of success in conventional attacks (which conveniently, nukes cannot deter)? Either way, Israel willfully projects its power any time/place it chooses.

Timendi causa est nescire - Ignorance is the cause of fear.


Nice Discussion
CKR  Apr 25 2008 - 2:01pm   

When I wrote that "attack its neighbors with impunity" remark, I recognized that it contains a number of possible holes.

I've had some good discussions with Ward Wilson the last day or so on nuclear deterrence and other matters. Unfortunately, today is busy enough (and the Syria briefing is out!) that I can't do justice to this discussion.

But I hope to return over the weekend.

In the meanwhile, carry on.


 


Analysis of Aerial Photos
CKR  Apr 26 2008 - 2:02pm   

I've done a bit of analysis of the Al Kibar photos, hope to do more. And maybe get into this discussion.


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