Paleoprog Mar 30 2008 - 10:46pm
It's a good question for the net left. Who would you rather control Basra?, Iranian backed anti-government Sharia militias or the Iraqi Army. It's popular to say there is not much difference between the two. And this was certainly true in 2005 and even to a large degree in 2006. And of course we all know that SCIRI/ISCI and Dawa were supported by Iran before and after the war. Iran plays all sides in Iraq, this is clear.
But it is also quite obvious that Iran seeks to drive the coalition of non-terror nations out of Iraq and also that it has supported and in some cases directed elements that seek to destroy that government. The military says the mortars launched into the green zone were made in Iran.
The very fact that a Shiite prime minister is leading an offensive against Shiite terrorists is a sea change. It was as of a eight months ago something that Maliki would not do, and was a reason for legitimate skepticism about the federal Iraqi government. The Baghdad security plan was notable for its lack of Shiia targets. Maliki was allowing the ethnic cleansers to get away while ruthlessly targeting Sunni Qaeda.
No more. The Iraqi Army is now killing off what is left of the anti-government side of the Mahdi Army. The Mahdi army seeks to finish cleansing baghdad. More important they have withdrawn from the government. The Badr Corps have also engaged in cleansing, but not to the same degree. And with US military advisers embedded within and training the IA, the confessional activity of these brigades is categorically different than the Mahdi Army today. There is a difference.
Finally there is an assumption that Sadr and the Mahdi irredentists are somehow more representative of the Iraqi people than their government. While this may be true for the slum of Sadr City, it is definitely not the case for most Iraqi Shiia. To start, Ayatollah Sistani and the Najaf Hawza have more of a claim on Iraqi Shiite sentiment today than Sadr, who tried to kill Sistani. What's more, there are millions of Iraqis who are themselves secular and see Sadr, not through the lens of his lineage, but increasingly as a tool of Khomeinist Iran. It doesn't help that Sadr seems to have spent more time in Qom in the last year than Najaf.
All of these are hopeful developments. The clash in Basra was inevitable after the British retreat. As for your question if America was informed, I have no doubt MNFI was informed. But I also think this was Maliki's decision. If MNFI had its way they would have delayed the clash in Basra until the terrorists in Mosul were suppressed. But it now is what it is. And Sadr's alley fighters have been called off the streets by Sadr himself. Mullah Atari is weak and that is a blessing.
Here's the AP
Al-Sadr pulls fighters off streets
By KIM GAMEL, Associated Press Writer
2 hours, 12 minutes ago
BAGHDAD - In a possible turning point in the recent upsurge in violence, Muqtada al-Sadr ordered his Shiite militiamen off the streets Sunday but called on the government to stop its raids against his followers.
The government welcomed the move, which followed intense negotiations by Shiite officials, including two lawmakers who reportedly traveled to Iran to ask religious authorities there to intervene.
Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, whose offensive that began Tuesday in the oil-rich southern city in Basra sparked the crisis, called al-Sadr's statement "a step in the right direction."
But fighting continued in the Basra area after the announcement. Seven people also were killed when a mortar struck a residential district in Baghdad's Karradah district, and witnesses reported clashes in the Shula area in a northern section of the capital.
A U.S. airstrike killed 25 suspected militants after American ground forces came under heavy fire during a combat patrol in predominantly Shiite eastern Baghdad, where the fiercest clashes in the capital have occurred.
The nine-point statement by the anti-American cleric, which was broadcast through Shiite mosques in Baghdad and across the south, called for an end to the "armed presence" in Basra and other cities and urged followers "to cooperate with the government to achieve security."
Al-Sadr, however, also demanded that the Iraqi government stop "illegal and haphazard raids" and release security detainees who haven't been charged, two issues cited by his movement as reasons for fighting the government.
The Sadrists have complained that the government has released few of their followers under a new amnesty law, which they complain has favored Sunnis who have recently joined with the Americans to fight al-Qaida.
The cleric's decision offered a way out of a widening Shiite conflict at a time when government forces appeared to be making little headway against the well-armed militias in Basra.
Al-Sadr's order stopped short of calling on his fighters to disarm. And the government insisted it would still target "outlaws."
Iraqi authorities in Baghdad said a citywide curfew would be lifted Monday morning, although a vehicle ban remained on three strongholds of al-Sadr's Mahdi Army militia in the capital.
Before al-Sadr's statement, dozens of Shiite gunmen Sunday stormed a government TV facility in central Basra, forcing Iraqi troops guarding the building to flee and setting armored vehicles on fire.
One of al-Maliki's top security officials also was killed in a mortar attack in Basra, officials said. The prime minister's Dawa party issued a statement of condolences identifying the slain official as Salim Qassim, known by his nickname Abu Laith al-Kadhimi.
In an effort to curb the growing violence, two senior Shiite lawmakers close to al-Maliki — Hadi al-Amri and Ali al-Adeeb — traveled to Iran and asked authorities there to stop the flow of weapons to al-Sadr's Mahdi Army, according to two officials.
The lawmakers — both of whom have close ties to Iran — also asked the Iranians to pressure al-Sadr to come up with a face-saving initiative, according to the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject.
The U.S. has accused Iran of supplying weapons, money and training to all major Shiite factions in Iraq. Those include the Mahdi Army as well as groups closely allied with the Americans. Tehran denies the charges.
Scattered firing could be heard in central Baghdad hours after al-Sadr's statement was released, and rockets or mortars were fired toward the Green Zone, where U.S. diplomats were holed up in the embassy at Saddam Hussein's former palace and ordered to stay under hard cover as the sprawling area has come under frequent fire this week.
At least seven Iraqis were killed and 21 wounded when two rounds apparently fell short, striking houses in the commercial district of Karradah, police said.
Suspected Mahdi Army gunmen also attacked an Iraqi checkpoint in eastern Baghdad, killing six troops, police said. The attack came hours after al-Sadr's statement was issued by his office in the holy city of Najaf.
The strength of the resistance to the week-old offensive has taken the U.S.-backed government by surprise, forcing it to bring in reinforcements as the number of Iraqi security forces involved in the effort topped 30,000.
The prime minister, himself a Shiite, has called the fight "a decisive and final battle," although he acknowledged later that he may have miscalculated by failing to foresee the strong backlash the offensive would provoke.
An estimated 400 people have been killed as fighting spread to Baghdad neighborhoods and other southern cities.
Several clashes have involved U.S. forces and the U.S. military launched airstrikes in Basra and American special forces were on the ground helping the Iraqi ground troops. The military said 16 enemy fighters were killed when an AC-130 gunship strafed heavily armed militants attacking Iraqi troops during clashes on Saturday.
The Shiite violence threatened to jeopardize recent security gains due to an influx of American troops, a Sunni revolt against al-Qaida in Iraq and al-Sadr's cease-fire that was announced in August.
Attacks bearing the hallmark of al-Qaida militants also continued in northern Iraq.
A suicide car bomber killed five U.S.-backed Sunni fighters and wounded eight other people near the oil hub of Beiji, 155 miles north of Baghdad.
Gunmen also killed five policemen in Duluiyah, a Sunni-dominated area 45 miles north of Baghdad.
Also Sunday, a U.S. soldier and a Marine were killed in separate roadside bombings in Baghdad and in Anbar province west of the capital, the military reported. That raises to 4,010 the number of American service members killed since the war started in March 2003, according to an Associated Press count.
The U.S. military said separately that American and Iraqi troops unearthed 14 badly decomposed bodies in a mass grave on Saturday in Muqdadiyah, northeast of Baghdad. It was the second such find since Thursday, when 37 bodies were found.
Eric Martin Mar 31 2008 - 6:26pm
Finally, Sadr called his guys, if they are his guys, off the street before getting anything he wanted.
Wait, what did Maliki get? Maliki was the initiator. He was trying to get something. He wanted the Sadrists to disarm, they said no. Yet Maliki did well? Not following that.
Also, I don't think Sadr represents anyone outside of Sadr City anymore.
Yes. Nobody in Kut I'm sure. And that's why ISCI is so scared to face his current in free and fair elections throughout the south.
I have to think his street rep has diminished because he was not in Basra or Sadr City for the fighting
Nah. He was pursuing his religious studies. Everyone knows this, so I don't think his distance matters. His reasons are legitimate.
What's more, as I remember it Sadr never called for his followers to take up arms, they did that on their own or at the instruction of the Iranians.
No. Sadr made it clear that they could defend themselves. After Maliki attacked, they defended themselves. Iran, incidentally, is backing its proxies (ISCI and Dawa) because Iran favors a Shiite super region, whereas Sadr opposes one. That is a big point of divergence between Sadr and Iran, ISCI and Dawa.
Someone must end these gangs. So I welcome that the job has fallen to Iraqis. The existence of the Basra gangs is a source of instability in itself, not the Iraqi Army's effort to kill and jail them.
But you ignore that some gangs are tolerated while others aren't. That's the big underlying weakness to your argument (that and your downplaying of Iran's ties to ISCI - a group formed in Iran).
It means something that ISCI has aligned with the Najaf Hawza, and away from Iran.
No, actually, it doesn't. That was a PR stunt with no binding impact. They could simply declare realignment tomorrow, or leave the "alignment" on the books and act in a different manner. Window dressing. Don't fall for it.
And it means something that Sadr is trying to get his Ayatollah diploma from Qom and not Najaf.
Not really. Care to elaborate? Are you that well versed in Shiite theological training?
It's fascinating that the netleft is in favor of reaching out to terrorists so long as they remain anti-American. But as soon as they are cooperating with the aims of the national Iraqi government they are not speaking for anyone, they are no better or worse than the terrorists from before. The debaathififcation law is a travesty, let the baathists in. But when it comes to ISCI they are no better than the gangs of Basra.
I'm not sure what this even means. You have to do better to make a coherent argument. This is so vague and stuffed with straw that I can't really respond.
Either ISCI is popular, or they aren't - regardless of what American leftists say. If they can win elections without attacking their adversaries, then they can - regardless of what American leftits say. If they cannot, then they are not, etc.
Remember, the neocons and Bush admin supporters have been consistently and significantly wrong about gauging indigenous support for Iraqi leaders and factions. First, Chalabi was so popular he could take over post-invasion.
Then, Chalabi and/or Allawi were so popular that they would win the elections or do well enough to head a government.
Then, Sadr never really had a following and ISCI was very popular despite poll after poll showing the Iraqi people angry at ISCI for corruption and inefficiency.
If you don't mind, I'll stick to the empirical stuff. It's served me quite well thus far, as has ignoring self-serving, pleasing to western ears predictions of which factions have popular support.
And what is this about "terrorists"?
The problem with ISCI is that they are one Shiite faction using the government to target their rivals rather than face them in free elections. The rest of your comment is irrelevant.