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So Where Are We Going? It's a Surprise

Eric Martin  Mar 30 2008 - 1:57pm   

Commenter byrningman make an interesting point at Obsidian Wings concerning the debate about to what extent the Bush administration knew that the most recent anti-Sadr operation was going to occur:

Of course the US was notified of the offensive beforehand - Americans drove them to Basra. The Iraqi government does not have the capability to mobilise and maintain in the field 20-30k fighters.

I'm not an expert by any stretch in terms of military logistics, but I was under the impression that this was one of the shortcomings of the Iraqi military.  Does anyone (Jay Sigger?  Phil Carter? Abu Mook?)  know any better?  Of course, there are local Badr elements engaged in the fight, and they didn't need transport.  But what about the bulk of the "official" Iraqi forces?

While perusing the Obsidian Wings site (which should be a daily ritual for all upstanding citizens), I also came across this gem from Publius:

God help us if this isn't a lie (emphasis mine):

Randy Scheunemann, the McCain campaign’s senior foreign policy adviser [said] “Would you rather have the Maliki government in control, or the Iranian-backed special groups in control, or Al Qaeda in control?

Ah yes, it's either Maliki and ISCI, or else Iran will get its way (or al-Qaeda in control!).  This statement is either gallingly ignorant, or remarkably dishonest.  Either way, it would be extremely dangerous if John McCain takes the White House.

[UPDATE: Commenter Matttbastard:

More from The Independent:

British commanders were unaware of the operation until just before it began, although the Iraqi government’s national security adviser, Mowaffaq al-Rubaie, had spent half an hour discussing the plan with General David Petraeus, the US commander in Iraq, on Saturday evening. This was followed by Mr Maliki ordering two extra Iraqi infantry battalions to Basra that night. [emphasis his]

Hmmm.

Brits were in the dark, Petraeus was given notice
matttbastard  Mar 30 2008 - 2:23pm   

Eric: More from The Independent:

British commanders were unaware of the operation until just before it began, although the Iraqi government’s national security adviser, Mowaffaq al-Rubaie, had spent half an hour discussing the plan with General David Petraeus, the US commander in Iraq, on Saturday evening. This was followed by Mr Maliki ordering two extra Iraqi infantry battalions to Basra that night.


Thanks Matt
Eric Martin  Mar 30 2008 - 2:27pm   

More updates!


Randy is correct
Paleoprog  Mar 30 2008 - 10:46pm   

It's a good question for the net left. Who would you rather control Basra?, Iranian backed anti-government Sharia militias or the Iraqi Army. It's popular to say there is not much difference between the two. And this was certainly true in 2005 and even to a large degree in 2006. And of course we all know that SCIRI/ISCI and Dawa were supported by Iran before and after the war. Iran plays all sides in Iraq, this is clear.

But it is also quite obvious that Iran seeks to drive the coalition of non-terror nations out of Iraq and also that it has supported and in some cases directed elements that seek to destroy that government. The military says the mortars launched into the green zone were made in Iran.

The very fact that a Shiite prime minister is leading an offensive against Shiite terrorists is a sea change. It was as of a eight months ago something that Maliki would not do, and was a reason for legitimate skepticism about the federal Iraqi government. The Baghdad security plan was notable for its lack of Shiia targets. Maliki was allowing the ethnic cleansers to get away while ruthlessly targeting Sunni Qaeda.

No more. The Iraqi Army is now killing off what is left of the anti-government side of the Mahdi Army. The Mahdi army seeks to finish cleansing baghdad. More important they have withdrawn from the government. The Badr Corps have also engaged in cleansing, but not to the same degree. And with US military advisers embedded within and training the IA, the confessional activity of these brigades is categorically different than the Mahdi Army today. There is a difference.

Finally there is an assumption that Sadr and the Mahdi irredentists are somehow more representative of the Iraqi people than their government. While this may be true for the slum of Sadr City, it is definitely not the case for most Iraqi Shiia. To start, Ayatollah Sistani and the Najaf Hawza have more of a claim on Iraqi Shiite sentiment today than Sadr, who tried to kill Sistani. What's more, there are millions of Iraqis who are themselves secular and see Sadr, not through the lens of his lineage, but increasingly as a tool of Khomeinist Iran. It doesn't help that Sadr seems to have spent more time in Qom in the last year than Najaf.

All of these are hopeful developments. The clash in Basra was inevitable after the British retreat. As for your question if America was informed, I have no doubt MNFI was informed. But I also think this was Maliki's decision. If MNFI had its way they would have delayed the clash in Basra until the terrorists in Mosul were suppressed. But it now is what it is. And Sadr's alley fighters have been called off the streets by Sadr himself. Mullah Atari is weak and that is a blessing.

Here's the AP

Al-Sadr pulls fighters off streets
By KIM GAMEL, Associated Press Writer
2 hours, 12 minutes ago
BAGHDAD - In a possible turning point in the recent upsurge in violence, Muqtada al-Sadr ordered his Shiite militiamen off the streets Sunday but called on the government to stop its raids against his followers.

The government welcomed the move, which followed intense negotiations by Shiite officials, including two lawmakers who reportedly traveled to Iran to ask religious authorities there to intervene.

Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, whose offensive that began Tuesday in the oil-rich southern city in Basra sparked the crisis, called al-Sadr's statement "a step in the right direction."

But fighting continued in the Basra area after the announcement. Seven people also were killed when a mortar struck a residential district in Baghdad's Karradah district, and witnesses reported clashes in the Shula area in a northern section of the capital.

A U.S. airstrike killed 25 suspected militants after American ground forces came under heavy fire during a combat patrol in predominantly Shiite eastern Baghdad, where the fiercest clashes in the capital have occurred.

The nine-point statement by the anti-American cleric, which was broadcast through Shiite mosques in Baghdad and across the south, called for an end to the "armed presence" in Basra and other cities and urged followers "to cooperate with the government to achieve security."

Al-Sadr, however, also demanded that the Iraqi government stop "illegal and haphazard raids" and release security detainees who haven't been charged, two issues cited by his movement as reasons for fighting the government.

The Sadrists have complained that the government has released few of their followers under a new amnesty law, which they complain has favored Sunnis who have recently joined with the Americans to fight al-Qaida.

The cleric's decision offered a way out of a widening Shiite conflict at a time when government forces appeared to be making little headway against the well-armed militias in Basra.

Al-Sadr's order stopped short of calling on his fighters to disarm. And the government insisted it would still target "outlaws."

Iraqi authorities in Baghdad said a citywide curfew would be lifted Monday morning, although a vehicle ban remained on three strongholds of al-Sadr's Mahdi Army militia in the capital.

Before al-Sadr's statement, dozens of Shiite gunmen Sunday stormed a government TV facility in central Basra, forcing Iraqi troops guarding the building to flee and setting armored vehicles on fire.

One of al-Maliki's top security officials also was killed in a mortar attack in Basra, officials said. The prime minister's Dawa party issued a statement of condolences identifying the slain official as Salim Qassim, known by his nickname Abu Laith al-Kadhimi.

In an effort to curb the growing violence, two senior Shiite lawmakers close to al-Maliki — Hadi al-Amri and Ali al-Adeeb — traveled to Iran and asked authorities there to stop the flow of weapons to al-Sadr's Mahdi Army, according to two officials.

The lawmakers — both of whom have close ties to Iran — also asked the Iranians to pressure al-Sadr to come up with a face-saving initiative, according to the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject.

The U.S. has accused Iran of supplying weapons, money and training to all major Shiite factions in Iraq. Those include the Mahdi Army as well as groups closely allied with the Americans. Tehran denies the charges.

Scattered firing could be heard in central Baghdad hours after al-Sadr's statement was released, and rockets or mortars were fired toward the Green Zone, where U.S. diplomats were holed up in the embassy at Saddam Hussein's former palace and ordered to stay under hard cover as the sprawling area has come under frequent fire this week.

At least seven Iraqis were killed and 21 wounded when two rounds apparently fell short, striking houses in the commercial district of Karradah, police said.

Suspected Mahdi Army gunmen also attacked an Iraqi checkpoint in eastern Baghdad, killing six troops, police said. The attack came hours after al-Sadr's statement was issued by his office in the holy city of Najaf.

The strength of the resistance to the week-old offensive has taken the U.S.-backed government by surprise, forcing it to bring in reinforcements as the number of Iraqi security forces involved in the effort topped 30,000.

The prime minister, himself a Shiite, has called the fight "a decisive and final battle," although he acknowledged later that he may have miscalculated by failing to foresee the strong backlash the offensive would provoke.

An estimated 400 people have been killed as fighting spread to Baghdad neighborhoods and other southern cities.

Several clashes have involved U.S. forces and the U.S. military launched airstrikes in Basra and American special forces were on the ground helping the Iraqi ground troops. The military said 16 enemy fighters were killed when an AC-130 gunship strafed heavily armed militants attacking Iraqi troops during clashes on Saturday.

The Shiite violence threatened to jeopardize recent security gains due to an influx of American troops, a Sunni revolt against al-Qaida in Iraq and al-Sadr's cease-fire that was announced in August.

Attacks bearing the hallmark of al-Qaida militants also continued in northern Iraq.

A suicide car bomber killed five U.S.-backed Sunni fighters and wounded eight other people near the oil hub of Beiji, 155 miles north of Baghdad.

Gunmen also killed five policemen in Duluiyah, a Sunni-dominated area 45 miles north of Baghdad.

Also Sunday, a U.S. soldier and a Marine were killed in separate roadside bombings in Baghdad and in Anbar province west of the capital, the military reported. That raises to 4,010 the number of American service members killed since the war started in March 2003, according to an Associated Press count.

The U.S. military said separately that American and Iraqi troops unearthed 14 badly decomposed bodies in a mass grave on Saturday in Muqdadiyah, northeast of Baghdad. It was the second such find since Thursday, when 37 bodies were found.


Come on Paleo...
Eric Martin  Mar 31 2008 - 2:51pm   

Are you really still trying to claim that the Iraqi government in this context is seriously distinguishable from ISCI/Dawa (the Maliki wing thereof)?  Do yourself a favor, and take the time to read Anthony Cordesman - not exactly a "net lefter" by any stretch.  I linked to him a few days ago on this site, and I think he has an op-ed out in one of the majors this week.

As an aside: How many Kurdish and Sunni troops were used in Basra?  Why was the "Iraqi Army" fighting alongside the Badr militia - in tandem?  Why wasn't the "Iraqi Army" targeting Badr?  Do you really think that the elections had nothing to do with it?

Your soft pedal and spin seems...well, almost half-hearted. You've got to pound the table a bit more.  You sure don't have the facts or the law on your side, so to speak.

Incidentally, do you still think my analysis is "incoherent"? 

The last time you said so, you were scoffing at my warning that the Iraqi Govt./US forces were pushing too aggressively against Sadr and that there would be a flare up of violence.  Hey, even a blind squirrel...


I should add...
Eric Martin  Mar 31 2008 - 2:56pm   

that I largely agree with this:

As for your question if America was informed, I have no doubt MNFI was informed. But I also think this was Maliki's decision. If MNFI had its way they would have delayed the clash in Basra until the terrorists in Mosul were suppressed.

But if you think that Sadr looks weak after this episode, well, I'm afraid you're going to be viewing a lot of my ongoing analysis as "incoherent."  At least at first.

Trust me: Sadr came out of this just fine.


I think you
Paleoprog  Mar 31 2008 - 6:06pm   

seriously misread Sadr in this whole thing. First off there is still a lot we don't know about the fighting in Basra. I've seen the reports like you, but many of them contradict each other. Nibras makes an excellent point on his blog about the quality of stringing on this.

Also, I don't think Sadr represents anyone outside of Sadr City anymore. There he is still worshipped, but I have to think his street rep has diminished because he was not in Basra or Sadr City for the fighting, instead he issued diktats from far away. What's more, as I remember it Sadr never called for his followers to take up arms, they did that on their own or at the instruction of the Iranians. So how much of this rebellion is a political move or not and on behalf of whom is murkier than the instant analysis from some progressive. (notice I have not used credulosphere, web neutralist or nutroots once in this discussion. I am trying to be more polite).

Finally, Sadr called his guys, if they are his guys, off the street before getting anything he wanted. Everyone assumes that Maliki will cave to these demands and this is far from clear. It's not even clear that there is really a total ceasefire.
Sadr made the conciliatory gesture first this time. And I don't think he necessarily wins anything on elections either. Sadr is a force for destroying the government. More and more Iraqis don't want to fight anymore. And non-Shiite Iraqis correctly view Sadr as a butcher. Ideally, an awakening effect with Shiite tribes will politically weaken ISCI, Dawa and Mahdi. But Sadr is hardly the king maker he used to be. He's kind of a bitch now.

More important, insofar as MNFI can divide the Mahdi army this is a good thing. But those that stand against the government and continue in terrorism and general Islamic gangsterism must be dead or in jail. This is the other side of COIN. Diminish the pool of your enemies, but go after those enemies in such a way that they can't intimidate the local population. It's not just tea and shisha with the friendly sheikhs. Someone must end these gangs. So I welcome that the job has fallen to Iraqis. The existence of the Basra gangs is a source of instability in itself, not the Iraqi Army's effort to kill and jail them.

I mean come on, you don't think it's significant for Maliki to lead the army to Basra to take on Shiite militias. And while I grant in 2005 the Badr Corps did gruesome things, they have not persisted in their cleansing operation in anything resembling what Mookie's thugs did. It means something that ISCI has aligned with the Najaf Hawza, and away from Iran. And it means something that Sadr is trying to get his Ayatollah diploma from Qom and not Najaf. I grant that the question of Iran's influence is murky, but is its influence with ISCI comparable to say the role Iran plays in propping up these special groups. I don't think so today.

Finally this. It's fascinating that the netleft is in favor of reaching out to terrorists so long as they remain anti-American. But as soon as they are cooperating with the aims of the national Iraqi government they are not speaking for anyone, they are no better or worse than the terrorists from before. The debaathififcation law is a travesty, let the baathists in. But when it comes to ISCI they are no better than the gangs of Basra.


Hmmm...
Eric Martin  Mar 31 2008 - 6:26pm   

Finally, Sadr called his guys, if they are his guys, off the street before getting anything he wanted.

Wait, what did Maliki get?  Maliki was the initiator.  He was trying to get something.  He wanted the Sadrists to disarm, they said no.  Yet Maliki did well?  Not following that.

Also, I don't think Sadr represents anyone outside of Sadr City anymore.

Yes.  Nobody in Kut I'm sure.  And that's why ISCI is so scared to face his current in free and fair elections throughout the south.

I have to think his street rep has diminished because he was not in Basra or Sadr City for the fighting

Nah.  He was pursuing his religious studies.  Everyone knows this, so I don't think his distance matters.  His reasons are legitimate.

What's more, as I remember it Sadr never called for his followers to take up arms, they did that on their own or at the instruction of the Iranians.

No.  Sadr made it clear that they could defend themselves.  After Maliki attacked, they defended themselves.  Iran, incidentally, is backing its proxies (ISCI and Dawa) because Iran favors a Shiite super region, whereas Sadr opposes one.  That is a big point of divergence between Sadr and Iran, ISCI and Dawa. 

Someone must end these gangs. So I welcome that the job has fallen to Iraqis. The existence of the Basra gangs is a source of instability in itself, not the Iraqi Army's effort to kill and jail them.

But you ignore that some gangs are tolerated while others aren't.  That's the big underlying weakness to your argument (that and your downplaying of Iran's ties to ISCI - a group formed in Iran).

It means something that ISCI has aligned with the Najaf Hawza, and away from Iran.

No, actually, it doesn't.  That was a PR stunt with no binding impact.  They could simply declare realignment tomorrow, or leave the "alignment" on the books and act in a different manner.  Window dressing.  Don't fall for it.

And it means something that Sadr is trying to get his Ayatollah diploma from Qom and not Najaf.

Not really.  Care to elaborate?  Are you that well versed in Shiite theological training?

It's fascinating that the netleft is in favor of reaching out to terrorists so long as they remain anti-American. But as soon as they are cooperating with the aims of the national Iraqi government they are not speaking for anyone, they are no better or worse than the terrorists from before. The debaathififcation law is a travesty, let the baathists in. But when it comes to ISCI they are no better than the gangs of Basra.

I'm not sure what this even means.  You have to do better to make a coherent argument.  This is so vague and stuffed with straw that I can't really respond.

Either ISCI is popular, or they aren't - regardless of what American leftists say.  If they can win elections without attacking their adversaries, then they can - regardless of what American leftits say.  If they cannot, then they are not, etc.

Remember, the neocons and Bush admin supporters have been consistently and significantly wrong about gauging indigenous support for Iraqi leaders and factions.  First, Chalabi was so popular he could take over post-invasion.

Then, Chalabi and/or Allawi were so popular that they would win the elections or do well enough to head a government. 

Then, Sadr never really had a following and ISCI was very popular despite poll after poll showing the Iraqi people angry at ISCI for corruption and inefficiency.

If you don't mind, I'll stick to the empirical stuff.  It's served me quite well thus far, as has ignoring self-serving, pleasing to western ears predictions of which factions have popular support.

And what is this about "terrorists"?

The problem with ISCI is that they are one Shiite faction using the government to target their rivals rather than face them in free elections.  The rest of your comment is irrelevant. 


a propos the announced deal between Sadr and Maliki...
China Hand  Mar 30 2008 - 11:47pm   

I think the takeaway from this campaign is not that Sadr wants a civil war.  Sadr wants an election, one that will put him in control of the leading block in parliament and allow him to normalize the legal status of his militias and himself personally (isn't he still subject to an arrest warrant that isn't being pursued?).  Maliki's pre-emptive military solution failed, so it looks like the elections will go ahead.  The interesting point seems to be that both sides are relying on Iran to broker the deal.  And if Iran was so hot for Maliki, they could have detained Sadr or done a lot of other things to put pressure on him while he was hiding inside Iran.  But they didn't.  Which means it looks like the elections will go ahead, Sadr has a good chance of entering the government with Iran's blessing, and Maliki and the US will just have to live with it.


No
Happy Jack  Apr 1 2008 - 12:47am   

isn't he still subject to an arrest warrant that isn't being pursued?

 

No, that warrant mysteriously disappeared. I don't know how or why, though. Link 


Thanks for clearing that up...
China Hand  Apr 1 2008 - 3:10am   

According to George Packer's book, Assassin's Gate, one of Chalabi's judges issued the Sadr warrant in 2004 but Jerry Bremer "put it under seal".  Wonder what that means now that the CPA is out of the picture and Free Iraq is now carrying the ball.


Re: mil logistics
Armchair Generalist  Apr 1 2008 - 11:33am   

It's true that, a few years ago, the main constraint to announcing that Iraqi brigades were self-sufficient was the absence of their ability to conduct what we would call combat service support activities - all the admin and logistics functions required to keep a combat unit running smoothly. However, that doesn't mean that they lacked transportation assets. I would be very, very surprised to hear that the US Army supported in any way the transportation of Iraqi ground troops to Basra. Hell, we rely on contractors ourselves for a majority of heavy transportation needs.

I think what is more accurate to say is that the Iraqi military units in Basra got there on their own but probably had little to no sustainment capability more than what they carried with them. Another reason why Maliki would have wanted this to be over quickly rather than engaging in a long-term (more than a week) battle - he knew he couldn't keep it going.

Timendi causa est nescire - Ignorance is the cause of fear.


Thanks AG...
Eric Martin  Apr 1 2008 - 12:17pm   

as always.


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