Brian Ulrich  May 6 2008 - 2:13pm  Israel   

Over the past few days, Israel has suddenly become awash with rumors that the end may be near for Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. At issue are allegations that he accepted bribe's from American businessman Morris Talansky during his days as Jerusalem mayor. Israel is under a tight gag order that even Reuters is forced to follow, so we rely on the New York Post to explain this development that could end what remains of the Annapolis peace process.  Of course, it's not actually clear to me why this might force Olmert out when nothing else has.

Olmert's coalition is actually at least temporarily down to 64 after three MK's left the Pensioners to form a new Social Justice party linked to Russian billionaire Arcadi Gaydamak. However, they are interested in joining the coalition. Gaydamak has previously been rumored to have his sights on becoming Jerusalem's mayor himself, and even toyed with making a supermarket chain he acquired kosher to appeal to the city's religious voters.

(Crossposted to my blog.)

Brian Ulrich  Apr 10 2008 - 4:37am  Israel  Palestine   

Ynet reports on new developments in Middle East peacemaking:

"According to Palestinian sources, the two sides are to reach a general agreement on principles by the end of the year that would not include reference to the questions of Jerusalem or the Palestinian refugees.

"The agreement would be a temporary one – valid for five years – during which the PA would be granted some municipal sovereignty in the capital and would be allowed to provide various services to the Palestinian residents of the city.

"Ynet has learned that this new outline has been presented to Israel and the Palestinians by US mediators, and that the two sides have been discussing it in recent weeks. While both sides are reluctant to accept the proposal, a source involved in the talks said that American pressure may force them to do so...

"The final stage negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians on the issue of Jerusalem will be postponed by five years, according to a new proposal discussed by Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and PA negotiator Ahmed Qureia, a Palestinian source told Ynet.

"The proposal, submitted by the US, states that a settlement of the refugee problem would also be delayed by a few years."

I flipped the order of the two excerpts because I thought it was flowed better. I can see how Olmert's government is reluctant to sign off on this as presented, as for some reason Israelis are convinced the Oslo years were a great boon for the Palestinians in which they themselves got nothing. It's not clear what Olmert can point to here that would make them accept letting the Palestinian Authority operate in Jerusalem. The issue of settlements is also not addressed in these leaks. "Declaration of principles" has a rather hollow ring to it in the context of the Arab-Israeli conflict, and it's not at all clear what purpose this serves except to please the lame-duck Bush administration and possibly bolster Olmert's and Abbas's political standing. Of course, since those are the party leaders in each country most committed to peace, that isn't nothing.

Regular readers won't be surprised, though, to learn I think this might be the best we can expect. The largest obstacle to peace right now, frankly, is the Qassam fire from Gaza. (And yes, I know Palestinians are just as bothered by IDF operations as Israelis are by the situation in Sderot, but the power imbalance is such that I simply don't see that mattering much.) Resolving that will mean either dealing with Hamas or an improvement in Israel's defensive technology that is still a few years away.

(Crossposted to my blog)

Brian Ulrich  Apr 8 2008 - 10:07am  Egypt   

I'm not sure how much play this is getting in the United States, but Egypt is the scene of violent riots and spreading strikes and protests over high bread prices.  The great Hossam el-Hamalawy has detailed coverage from the delta here, and in other posts.  The Arabist reports that a general strike has been called for Husni Mubarak's birthday on May 4.

Despite the revolutionary overtones, I don't see the Mubarak regime falling because of this.  In fact, it's probably to the regime's advantage that this is happening now rather than during a transition period following Mubarak's death.
 

Brian Ulrich  Apr 3 2008 - 2:17am  Israel  North Korea  Nuclear Proliferation  Syria   

A Japanese newspaper reports that Ehud Olmert confirmed John Bolton's account of Israel's September raid in Syria:

"The Japanese daily newspaper Asahi Shimbun cited sources at the Japanese foreign ministry for its report of a meeting between Ehud Olmert, the prime minister of Israel, and Yasuo Fukuda, his Japanese opposite number.

"Olmert is reported to have admitted that Israel carried out the bombing last September and that the target was a nuclear-related facility built using technical assistance from Pyongyang...

"According to the paper's sources, Olmert told Fukuda that the site was a nuclear-related facility under construction with advice and assistance from North Korean technicians. The sources added that Olmert said Israel remained concerned about nuclear proliferation by North Korea and was seeking greater information sharing with Tokyo on the issue."

(Crossposted to my blog)

Brian Ulrich  Mar 27 2008 - 6:24am  Afghanistan  Pakistan  Taliban   

Imtiaz Ali discusses the Haqqani network, which is apparently the target of our recent missile strikes within Pakistan:

"The Haqqani Network is based in the Dande Darpa Khel village near Miramshah, headquarters of the North Waziristan Tribal Agency. The town is about 10 miles from the Afghan border. Sirajuddin, believed to be in his early thirties, has a $200,000 bounty on his head. He belongs to the Zadran tribe of Afghanistan, which also has roots on the Pakistani side of the border. Residents in Dande Darpa Khel say that the junior Haqqani grew up in this small and remote town of North Waziristan, once the operational headquarters of his father’s jihadist activities. It is said that he attended the now defunct religious seminary which his father founded in the early 1980s in the town of Bande Darpa Khel. Though he could not be considered a religious scholar, Sirajuddin certainly sharpened his jihad skills under the guidance of his father. Considered to be the leader of a new generation of Taliban militants on both sides of the border and a bridge between the Pakistani and Afghan Taliban, NATO officials have recently declared him as one of the most dangerous Taliban commanders in the ongoing insurgency in Afghanistan (Los Angeles Times, March 14)...

"On the Pakistani side of the border, Sirajuddin’s influence has been growing as a 'revered jihadist commander.' He strongly opposed Maulvi Nazir’s campaign against Uzbek and other foreign militants waged earlier this year by the militant tribal leader in South Waziristan (see Terrorism Monitor, January 11). He is reported to have played an important role in stopping the fighting between Maulvi Nazir’s tribal militia and Uzbek militants in Wana and the surrounding area in March last year. Sirajuddin took part in a tribal jirga, attempting to sort out differences between combatant foreigners and local militants, but the talks collapsed when Maulvi Nazir asked for the surrender of all foreign militants residing in the region bordering Afghanistan (Dawn, March 24, 2007). In late January, two arrested members of the Haqqani Network revealed that up to 200 suicide bombers had infiltrated into Pakistan’s cities in preparation for the current wave of bombings (Khabrain [Lahore], January 28)...

"Afghan officials as well as Coalition forces in Kabul have cited Sirajuddin’s use of North Waziristan as operational headquarter for his alleged cross-border terrorist activities as one example of Pakistan’s inability to eliminate terrorist sanctuaries in its tribal areas. Though the Pakistan government regards these claims as baseless, it is known that two years ago Sirajuddin issued a circular urging militants to continue their 'jihad' against the United States and the Karzai government 'till the last drop of blood.' But in the same statement he pointed out that 'fighting Pakistan does not conform to Taliban policy… those who [continue to wage] an undeclared war against Pakistan are neither our friends nor shall we allow them in our ranks' (Dawn, June 23, 2006). There are signs that this is no longer the policy of the Haqqani faction of the Taliban."

Brian Ulrich  Mar 18 2008 - 11:00am  Afghanistan  Al Qaeda  Pakistan  Taliban   

Writing for the Jamestown Foundation, Afzal Khan lays out a case that Baitullah Mehsud really had nothing to do with the assassination of Benazir Bhutto.  As an aside, he also suggests that this year, the United States and its allies may work the Pakistani side of the border as part of their battle against the Taliban's spring offensive in Afghanistan.  The missiles being lobbed into Pakistan's tribal areas seem to support that idea.

Brian Ulrich  Mar 9 2008 - 6:05am  Israel  Lebanon  Palestine  Terrorism   

The day of the Mercaz HaRav attack, Hizbullah's al-Manar television network reported a claim of responsibility from an unknown group which was allegedly seeking revenge for the death of Imad Mughniyeh in Damascus several weeks ago. No one took that very seriously, but now anonymous Palestinian sources claim Hizbullah coordinated the attack with Hamas leaders in Damascus. Israeli sources also say they are looking into Hizbullah connections. In the absence of other claims, it is definitely plausible that Hizbullah decided to undertake this operation at a distance much like Israel probably took out Mughniyeh without leaving clear fingerprints.

(Crossposted to my blog)

Brian Ulrich  Mar 8 2008 - 4:49pm  Israel  Terrorism   

Thursday night's attack on the Mercaz HaRav yeshiva in Jerusalem was clearly an unacceptable terrorist act. It is a radical yeshiva, the flagship institution of the religious Zionist movement associated with Rabbi Zvi Yehuda Kook, but contrary to some reports, it did not combine study with military service, and in fact was involved in many charitable community projects. Most of the students killed were under 18, and children under international standards.

I suspect the gunman did not see this as taking aim directly at the peace process so much as he did seeking revenge for Israel's ongoing siege of Gaza, which Israel sees as an attempt to halt Qassam fire, which Hamas sees as resistance to the continuing occupation of Palestinian land, and so on ad nauseum. However, as Amir Mizroch says, it will inflame the rejectionist elements of Israeli society:

"The people directly affected by the deadly terrorist attack on the Mercaz Harav Yeshiva are not just the students, their relatives and friends, but the much wider larger segment of the religious Zionist public. This segment of the population, already seething with anger, which started with the Disengagement in 2005, the Amona pullout, the government promises to America remove illegal outposts, the continued diplomatic process launched at Annapolis and its emphasis to talk about all topics, including Jerusalem, is going to be extremely unhappy about this attack. Together with the grief and sorrow, there is going to be a lot of angry talk about good and evil, about a religious war over the Holy Land...

"Being messianic religious people, the religious Zionists are going to see this attack through the prism of messianic prophecy. Already I am hearing on religious Zionist radio stations people talking about the attack in prophetic terms, such as Isaiah 59 verse 20: And a redeemer will come to Zion, and unto them that turn from transgression in Jacob, saith the Lord.

"Settler radio talk-show hosts are interpreting this prophecy by saying that if the Jews don't stop Hamas, the Palestinians, Hizbullah and any other Islamic fundamentalists God will force the Jews to do it. The talk-show hosts blame Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and President Shimon Peres, and several callers into the broadcasts are unanimous in their condemnation of the Israeli government and calling on its removal."

The mood here in Jerusalem yesterday was similar to what I remember after Columbine in the United States. The Mercaz HaRav shooting has temporarily granted the religious Zionists a moral high ground within Israel they only rarely occupy. I can see their "Death to Arabs!" chanting at the funerals as of a piece with many slogans shouted at Hamas or Islamic Jihad rallies, but that is seldom the view of those buried within the conflict.

(Crossposted to my blog)

Brian Ulrich  Feb 25 2008 - 6:50am  Pakistan  Taliban   

Since I'm still a very junior scholar, I feel great that my analysis of the Pakistani elections and the problems with reading "Taliban" as some form of Pashtun insurgency track closely with the view expressed yesterday by Barnett Rubin, who of course added much personal insight and detail.  Go forth and read him.

Brian Ulrich  Feb 23 2008 - 9:54am  Afghanistan  Pakistan  Spain  Taliban  Terrorism   

In January, Spanish authorities arrested members of a terrorist cell alleged to be planning terrorist attacks in that country in March.  Apparently based on evidence from French intelligence, Robert Gates claimed the cell was tied to Beitullah Mehsud's Taliban Movement of Pakistan.  This has since been confirmed by a Spanish newspaper, which tied the movement's interest in Spain to that country's involvement in Afghanistan.  To be clear, the TTP spokesman the paper spoke to claimed they had been trained and sent by that organization, but that the terrorist operation was conceived independently.

It is by now clear that while Mehsud may have feigned moderation to win support from Musharraf's government, he's clearly at the head of a group that behaves like the 1990's Taliban and al-Qaeda combined.  Not only have they learned the suicide bombing techniques associated with the Iraq War fallout, but they're expanding their reach within Pakistan.  None of this is good.
 

Brian Ulrich  Feb 23 2008 - 9:21am  Afghanistan  Pakistan  Taliban   

 I still haven't had time to follow the news as closely as I normally like, but wanted to note that political developments in Pakistan could be good news for Hamid Karzai's government in its struggle against the Taliban.  One point is that the coalition includes the Awami National Party, Pashtun nationalists who have worked with Karzai and tribal elders in Afghanistan against the Taliban and against Musharraf.  In addition, according to Juan Cole, one possible reason for Musharraf's coup against Sharif in 1999 was that the latter was considering ending support for the Taliban under American pressure.  Frankly, I don't think that was a major factor, but if it's true that Sharif was considering that policy then, then together with the PPP and the Awami group he'll undoubtedly do so now, as well.

Brian Ulrich  Feb 7 2008 - 8:54am  Afghanistan  Pakistan  Taliban   

A number of pressing matters have kept me distracted from blogging during the past couple of months, and even from following my areas of interest as much as I like to.  As I get back into things, though, one matter that cries out for attention is the relationship between Beitullah Mehsud, Pakistan, and the Taliban.  McClatchy had this to say:

"A few months ago, few Pakistanis and even fewer Americans had heard of Baitullah Mehsud, and there are no pictures of the face of the Pashtun-speaking tribal chief from the rugged border area with Afghanistan. But in December, he was chosen to lead the Taliban Movement of Pakistan, a nascent Islamist insurgent coalition on Pakistan's northwestern frontier that preaches a radical form of Islam and opposes nuclear-armed Pakistan's secular regime.

"According to Pakistani authorities, Mehsud is behind the murderous bomb attacks that have shaken the country in the last year. They also accuse him of ordering the Dec. 27 killing of Bhutto, a charge that the CIA has backed up. Mehsud has denied any role.

"So many accusations have been hung around Mehsud's neck that some observers question whether he can be so powerful. Others say his brutal rise is only beginning.

"Mehsud operates from South Waziristan, within a wild mountainous region bordering Afghanistan that's known as the Federally Administered Tribal Areas. He reportedly commands at least 5,000 armed followers — maybe many more — and models himself on Mullah Omar, the fugitive leader of the Afghan Taliban, with whom he acknowledges spiritual links.

"Cunning but not well-educated, Mehsud orchestrated the killings of more than 100 maliks — traditional tribal leaders — in his area, many of whom wanted to talk peace with Pakistani authorities. Late last year, he humiliated Pakistan's army by kidnapping 250 soldiers, holding them for weeks and letting them go only in exchange for militants held in Pakistani jails.

"In his first television interview, given last week to al Jazeera, Mehsud said his armed militants sought to drive the Pakistani army out of the tribal areas. He acknowledged his links to al Qaida and voiced ambitions beyond Pakistan's borders. Al Jazeera didn't show his face."

As readers may remember, I've been following Mehsud for some time.  One theory I had was that Pakistan was trying to foster him as an alternative Taliban leader amenable to their interests.  If this was the case, it evidently no longer is.  More certain, however, was the fact that Mehsud was an advocate of concentrating Talibanish efforts in Afghanistan rather than taking on Musharraf's regime in Pakistan. 

This situation has obviously developed, as well, though I can't say how and in what way.  It's possible the strategy difference was just an excuse to extend his control, possibly playing the ISI for dupes.  Another possibility is that he changed his attitude, probably after the Lal Masjid siege which incited Taliban circles in the FATA and NWFP.  A third possibility is that he changed his tune in part to gain support within this new Taliban organization, which is now suing for a truce with Pakistan's government.  In fact, given the timing of events, one could cough up a conspiracy theory in which Mehsud was allied with Musharraf and created the crisis which gave Musharraf the excuse for his assertion of authority.  The idea of some coordination along those lines is probably a bit far out, but during the past year he and Musharraf have thrived off each other to a certain extent.

Brian Ulrich  Feb 6 2008 - 8:04am  Republican Party   

For all the talk of an imminent McCain-Huckabee ticket, I think it clear that Huckabee would wind up becoming a Dan Quayle with more serious gaffes, and probably someone who would make it easier for Democrats to paint McCain as the typical Republican he is on many issues.  I'm surprised, however, that there hasn't been more talk of Sarah Palin as the VP candidate, especially if the Democrats nominate Hillary Clinton.

Brian Ulrich  Jan 24 2008 - 10:34am  Israel  Palestine   

Ha'aretz is reporting that all Israeli construction in the West Bank is completely frozen:

"Israel has completely frozen all new construction in West Bank settlements, despite recent comments by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert that Israel would treat construction in the major settlement blocs differently from building in most settlements.

"Olmert has categorically denied approval for all new construction tenders, including in the so-called consensus settlement blocs, which Israel intends to keep in any future peace accord with the Palestinians.

"The freeze also applies to the construction of public institutions, including schools and kindergartens. Olmert recently sent an official letter to relevant cabinet ministers instructing them to refrain from authorizing any construction in the West Bank without his and Defense Minister Ehud Barak's prior approval...

"According to information made public several days ago, Barak had ordered settlement construction frozen beyond the parameters set forward by Olmert. Among other things, the defense minister said his approval is even needed for the private purchase of a home that has already been built."

This is great news, and a sign that Olmert's government is serious about negotiations with the Palestinians. The settlements themselves are a disgrace. They try to present themselves to sympathetic Americans as normal middle-class families, and there are many who were lured there by subsidized housing or simply dropped during the Soviet absorption period, but the movers and shakers behind the settlement project are militant religious fanatics living out messianic fantasies predicated on the belief that God cares deeply who lives in particular stretches of desert. Israel's continual support for their efforts, which includes even providing unauthorized ones with access to Israeli infrastructure, is a frankly expansionist project.

(Crossposted to my blog)

Brian Ulrich  Jan 23 2008 - 10:31am  Egypt  Israel  Palestine   

Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians are flooding into Egypt after Hamas destroyed two-thirds of the wall separating Egypt and the Gaza Strip, rendering irrelevant Israel's attempts to apply significant economic pressure to Gaza as retaliation for the rocket fire and Sderot and part of a broader strategy to bring down Hamas in the strip. Israel says it expects Egypt to take control of the situation, but President Husni Mubarak is cooperating with Hamas:

"Speaking at the Cairo International Book fair, Mubarak told reporters that when Palestinians began breaking through the Gaza-Egypt border at Rafah in force, he told his men to let them in to buy food before escorting them out.

"'I told them to let them come in and eat and buy food and then return them later as long as they were not carrying weapons,' he said, in answer to reporters' questions.

"Mubarak said his border guards originally had forced back the Gazans on Tuesday.

"'But today a great number of them came back because the Palestinians in Gaza are starving due to the Israeli siege. Egyptian troops accompanied them to buy food and then allowed them to return to the Gaza Strip,' he added.

"Mubarak also criticized Hamas for continuing to fire missiles into Israel, saying that it was not helping the situation. He said that he had been in contact with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and helped convince him to resume fuel shipments into Gaza."

From a political standpoint, Mubarak has no choice in the matter. If his troops had acted differently, they would be contributing to Palestinian suffering in a direct way rather than just the indirect way of providing Israel with diplomatic legitimacy for which he is criticized with Egypt. His actions here are a bow to political reality from which Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas should take lessons, as his people, apparently caught flat-footed, sputter that Hamas is trying to reap political benefits.

Hamas won this round even if they did manufacture the crisis, which I frankly don't believe. The world sees people suffering more than those in Sderot saved by Hamas actions. I hate Hamas, and even I have some fuzzy feelings about this. Even sources in Israel's Defense Minstry say that, "the situation did not unfold in recent days precisely as we would have wanted." On the eve of the release of the Winograd Report, Ehud Olmert led Israel full throttle into international condemnation and probably a lasting defeat in terms of its ability to control the Rafah border crossing for the near future.

(Crossposted to my blog)

Brian Ulrich  Jan 22 2008 - 8:03am  Human Rights  Saudi Arabia   

The government of Saudi Arabia has given women the right to stay alone in a hotel, and will soon legalize driving:

"The Arabic daily Al Watan, which is deemed close to the Saudi government, said the Ministry of Trade issued a circular to hotels asking them to accept women in their rooms even if they were alone provided that all their information is immediately be registered at a police station in the area, AP reported...

"Authorities also plan to issue a decree by the end of the year to lift the controversial ban on women driving.

"The move is designed to forestall protests for greater freedom by women, which have recently included campaigners driving cars through the kingdom in defiance of a threat of detention and loss of livelihoods."

In addition to the many activists who have called attention to these issues, some credit should go to King Abdullah. In the Saudi context, he does count as a reformer.

(Crossposted to my blog)

Brian Ulrich  Jan 11 2008 - 6:57am  Europe  European Union   

Below the radar of most world news coverage, it looks like Kosovo might unilaterally declare independence next month, and the United States and Germany will lead international efforts to recognize it:

"The United States and Germany have agreed to recognize Kosovo after it declares independence and to urge the rest of Europe to follow suit, say senior European Union diplomats close to negotiations over Kosovo’s future.

"In a recent conversation about Kosovo, a Serbian province that has been under United Nations administration since 1999, President Bush and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany agreed it was vital to recognize Kosovo to stabilize the western Balkans, European officials said Wednesday evening. After months of failed negotiations, Kosovo is expected to declare independence after the second round of Serbian elections, planned for Feb. 3.

"The European officials said the United States was aggressively pressing the European Union to ensure that the recognition of Kosovo was not delayed by even a week. They spoke on the condition of anonymity because diplomatic negotiations were continuing.

“'The cake has been baked, because the Americans have promised Kosovo independence,' a senior European Union official said. 'And if Washington recognizes Kosovo and European nations do not follow, it will be a disaster.'

"The government of Serbia and Russia, an ally, vehemently oppose independence for Kosovo. Several European Union countries — including Spain, Slovakia, Romania and Cyprus — fear spurring secessionist movements in their own territories. But European Union diplomats said a majority of European nations — including Germany, France, Britain and Italy — planned to recognize Kosovo, regardless of dissenters."

Brian Ulrich  Jan 11 2008 - 6:45am  Central Asia  Iran  Kyrgyzstan  Nuclear Proliferation  Uzbekistan   

This news from Central Asia is rather troubling:

"On January 9, Kyrgyz officials announced that they had taken possession of a small load of radioactive substance discovered aboard a train bound for Iran. The material has been placed in a special area in Kyrgyzstan, but questions are being raised about the nature and quantity of the substance, who was behind its transport, and how the train carrying it crossed three border checkpoints before being detected...

"Kubanych Noruzbaev, an official from the Kyrgyz Ecology and Environmental Protection Ministry, said on January 10 that the material was Cesium-137, a product of nuclear reactors and weapons testing that is often used in medical devices and gauges. But it could also be used in a crude radioactive explosive device -- a 'dirty bomb' -- and underscores the fact that despite some progress since 1991, parts of the former Soviet Union are still littered with sites where lethal radioactive materials remain largely unsecured...

"The Kyrgyz news agency 24.kg reported on January 9 that the levels of radiation being emitted from the train car were so high that Emergency Situations Ministry asked for volunteers to go and unload the cargo. Four people wearing special protective clothing volunteered to venture into the wagon where they discovered the source of the radiation: dust and waste material on the floor, which they swept up and deposited in a bucket. The bucket was then sealed in concrete and stored in a special facility...

"Kubat Osmonbetov, a geologist, told RFE/RL's Kyrgyz Service that Cesium-137 and Cesium-140 are definitely lethal in large doses. Osmonbetov also noted that there is a uranium-processing plant in northern Tajikistan, raising the possibility that the Tajik train in question may have been used in the past to transport radioactive material and that remains of that material had somehow been left in the wagon."

The article addresses the fact this train was bound for Iran, but I really see no plausible connection with the Iran's nuclear program. An additional possibility is that terrorists could be involved in some sort of trafficking hoping to make a dirty bomb. Occham's Razor, however, suggests the train previously carried some radioactive cargo in the past, either from the Tajik nuclear plant or for something related to those medical devices. The troubling aspect is that Central Asian states apparently don't have appropriate safety or security protocols in place. This train made it through three previous checkpoints! We can only hope Kyrgyz crime lords didn't just bribe security officials to look the other way.

(Crossposted to my blog)

Brian Ulrich  Jan 10 2008 - 11:01am  Pakistan  Taliban   

I've been traveling recently, and so haven't been following the news as closely as I often do, but noticed that the individual Pakistan blamed for the attack on Benazir Bhutto in Rawalpindi was Beitullah Mehsud.  In my discussions of the Taliban in Pakistan, I have often noted his inclination to want to focus on the war in Afghanistan and accept the backing of the Pakistani government under Musharraf, as opposed to those who want to take on both at once.  I have also suggested that he may be a component of a Pakistani plan to co-opt the Taliban for its own strategic purposes in Afghanistan.

In a Terrorism Focus published the day before yesterday, Imtiaz Ali offers a profile of Mehsud which I fear overstates his relative importance to other Taliban leaders in Pakistan, as well as his possible connections to al-Qaeda.  According to his biography, Ali was at Stanford during 2006-07, so he may have simply missed some of the developments that led me to my conclusions, such as his role in the crackdown on former IMU followers in South Waziristan last spring.  At the same time, it's possible he saw Bhutto as threatening Pakistan's support for his agenda, and was responsible for her assassination, either with or without the complicity of elements of the Pakistani state.

Brian Ulrich  Dec 13 2007 - 6:56am  Gulf States  Human Rights  Labor Issues  United Arab Emirates   

I try to keep track of Gulf labor issues, but completely missed most of this:

"The floodgates have opened. It is the beginning of the end for serious labor repression in the UAE, and the rest of the Gulf is likely to follow. Dubai's employers have been forced to negotiate with (illegally) organized labor and come out second-best...

"These foreign workers have had just one thing going for them over the past few years- they have gotten a lot more organized. Earlier this year, for instance, a riot by dissatisfied workers at the construction site for the world's tallest building, Burj Dubai, led to a sympathy strike by workers expanding Dubai airport, which lies on the other side of the city. Such coordination is not easy to arrange given that unions do not exist, and labor organizers are liable to be deported.

"But it wasn't until October that the big one hit. Depending on who you believe, somewhere between 30,000 and 40,000 people put down their tools for 10 days after the government threatened to deport workers who had rioted over unpaid wages. The strikers asked for higher wages, better housing, and improved transportation to construction sites. The industrial action crippled one major contractor, but also spread to other firms. Initial attempts to settle the dispute were unsuccessful, and workers refused to cave in despite a police crackdown that saw no fewer than 4,500 arrested and led to the deportation of 159 of their peers. Eventually, they won out. 4,100 of the detained workers were released, and the strikers won a 20% pay hike. Other companies now look set to raise their own pay scales."

Is Top Secret Anonymous Guy right about the implications of all this? He very well could be. This is a sweeping victory for workers' attempts to improve their material conditions. There remain deeper problems with their legal status, and until these are resolved, backsliding will remain an ever-present threat. At the same time, the workers in the UAE have clearly shown the ability to use the muscle of their numbers and necessity to the Gulf economy to effect change, a lesson the region's rulers will probably not forget. At the very least, serious battle has been joined.

(Crossposted to my blog)